IS A 3RD PARTY RUN A SPOILER?
Voting Green in CD-19 this March won’t put a Republican in office. California congressional elections use a nonpartisan primary, which means that the top two vote-getters in this March 5th election will face off in the November election. There are only three candidates for CD-19, so this March election is selecting which one of those three will be eliminated. The incumbent, a Democrat, will almost certainly get the most votes, so this primary election is simply deciding whether the Republican or the Green gets through to November. In other words, voting Green makes it more likely that the Republican won’t be on the November ballot.
The following hypothetical scenarios should help clarify.
Republican Knocked Out
The most likely scenario in which Dougherty will get into the November election is by placing second, which would look like something like the following:
Panetta (D) - 59%
Dougherty (G) - 21%
Anderson (R) - 20%
The November election would then be Panetta (D) vs Dougherty (G), meaning it’s impossible for a Republican to take office.
Democrat Tanks
What if something shocking were to happen and most Democrats decided to vote for the Green:
Dougherty (G) - 59%
Anderson (R) - 21%
Panetta (D) - 20%
The November election would then be Dougherty (G) vs Anderson (R), which would almost certainly yield a Green victory, given how strongly CD-19 leans Democrat (against Republicans).
Conclusion
In this district, voting for a Green won’t put a Republican in office. Just vote your conscience!